Overview

In 2023, Colorado experienced a dynamic climate landscape, with significant shifts in temperature, precipitation, and ecological patterns. Rising temperatures accelerated drought conditions and exacerbated bark beetle infestations in forests. These infestations, coupled with prolonged dry spells, heightened the risk of devastating wildfires across the state. Through analysis, this report illuminates the relationships between climate change, ecological health, and wildfire susceptibility in Colorado, offering insights for informed decision-making and proactive mitigation strategies.

Methods

For this project, I collected and cleaned historic data on various environmental metrics in Colorado, including temperature, precipitation, snowpack, drought, forest pests, and wildfires. Then, I compiled the 2023 metrics for these variables and utilized predictive modeling techniques to make forecasts for 2024. Alongside these predictions, I provided recommendations for mitigating environmental issues based on the analysis of historical trends and patterns. To effectively communicate the findings, I created visualizations such as graphs, charts, maps, and text commentary, which were presented in a data story format on this website. This approach will allow stakeholders to understand the current environmental conditions, anticipate future trends, and implement proactive measures to address challenges in Colorado's ecosystem.

Series 1

Temperature

Colorado’s combination of high elevation, midlatitude, and continental interior geography results in a cool, dry, and invigorating climate. There are large seasonal swings in temperature and large day-to-night changes.

The climate of local areas is profoundly affected by differences in elevation and, to a lesser degree, by the orientation of mountain ranges and valleys concerning general air movements. Wide variations occur over short distances. For instance, the difference in annual mean temperature between Pikes Peak and Las Animas, ninety miles to the southeast, is 35 degrees—about the same as that between southern Florida and Iceland.

Statewide Historic Temperature Trends

Yearly Avg Temperature Tracking

For the 2023 water year (Oct. 1, 2022, to Sept. 30, 2023), Colorado experienced its coolest in several years, though was still above the 100-year average. Fall temperatures warmed up statewide with above or much above the 100-year average varying from region.

Yearly Temperature Departure from 105 Year Avg

2023 had cooler temperatures than recent years but still above long-term averages for the water year on record dating back to 1895.

Optimal solar radiation levels for growing crops is between 250-300 (W/m2). Optimal soil temperatures for seed germination range from 68˚F - 86˚F, depending on the crop. The visualization shows that southeast CO is the still best location in the state for crop growing crops based on these metrics. However, these will need to be constantly reevaluated as decreasing water reservoirs and increasing temperatures impact the CO environment over the coming decades.

Series 2

Precipitation

In Colorado, precipitation occurs in various forms (rain, snow, hail, etc.) and the amount varies seasonally, annually, and by location. Statewide, the average yearly precipitation is approximately 17 inches; however, there is a large range in the average annual precipitation across the state due to various topographical features.

Average precipitation slightly decreases moving from the eastern border with Kansas into the Colorado plains, but then tends to significantly increase moving further west into the higher elevations of the foothills and mountain ranges.

Series 3

Snowpack

High peaks and mountain ranges generally receive the majority of their precipitation during the winter months. Mountain precipitation primarily falls as snow from November through mid-May. This creates seasonal snowpack at about 9,000 feet, although it is lower in some areas.

The average snowpack in Colorado is lower than thirty years ago, but there is no statistically significant decreasing trend in snowpack. Climate modeling studies suggest Colorado's seasonal snowpack is vulnerable to projected increases in temperatures but less so than the Cascades and Sierras of the western United States.

Historic Snow Water Equivalent

SWE measures the amount of liquid water in the snow. If you took a height of snow and melted it, the height of the water created is the SWE. This number is vitally important for assessing runoff levels into Colorado’s basins.

The above-average precipitation for the northeast in 2023 helped replenish some below-average moisture in recent years, though it's unlikely to reverse drought impacts on trees across the state.

Series 4

Drought

Drought and its impacts vary from region to region—due to differences in climate. In Colorado and across the Intermountain West region (Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and western New Mexico), drought onset may occur quickly and last a season, or begin gradually and last decades. The Rocky Mountain regions rely on winter snowpack to sustain cities, towns, agriculture, and recreation. In the Southwest, the summer monsoons help people, and livestock, get through the hot summer months.

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) identifies areas in drought and labels them by the intensities "None" (normal/wet conditions), "D0" (abnormally dry), "D1" (Moderate Drought), "D2" (Severe Drought), "D3" (Extreme Drought), and "D4" (Exceptional Drought). The chart below shows the total number of CO square miles in each category in a given week.

Statewide Drought Trends

Total CO Drought Classifications since 2018

Drought has wide-ranging economic, environmental, political, and social impacts. In Colorado, drought affects agriculture, industry, municipal supplies, recreation, and fish and wildlife populations. Moreover, snowpack deficits in the Colorado mountains can affect water supplies in states across the southwestern U.S.

2023 Total CO Drought Classifications

Despite monsoonal rains arriving last year in parts of Colorado, which relieved a majority of the drought categories, several years of adequate precipitation will be necessary for trees to recover their defenses. Drier than normal conditions occurred for the San Luis Valley once again.

Possible values of the DSCI are from 0 to 500. Zero means that none of the area is abnormally dry or in drought, and 500 means that all of the area is in D4, exceptional drought.

Series 5

Forest Pests

Widespread outbreaks of three important bark beetle species have occurred in Colorado’s forests since the turn of the century: mountain pine beetle, spruce beetle, and the western balsam bark beetle. These bark beetles primarily target large trees with reduced defenses due to lower precipitation amounts and higher temperature trends since the turn of the century.

While natural disturbances such as insect outbreaks and wildfires occurred historically and maintained forest health over time, multiple, simultaneous insect disturbances in the greater region over the past two decades have led to rapid changes in the state’s forests.

Struggling Forests

Damage from Above

Since the 1950s, forest managers have taken to the skies to detect and monitor disturbances to forests from insects and diseases, collecting data that provide an annual look at forest health in Colorado. With this information, managers can see how and where bark beetles and other pests are moving across the landscape and proactively manage these forests to lessen their impacts.

Damage up Close

Last year, trained aerial observers with the CSFS and USFS flew over 36.6 million acres of forests in small aircraft. Some of the areas spotted during flights were then ground-checked to verify the insect or disease responsible and the severity of the damage.

Series 6

Wildfires

2020 saw the three largest wildfires in the state's history, which produced an almost inconceivable amount of damage to the region. These fires included the Cameron Peak Fire, the East Troublesome Fire, and the Pine Gulch Fire. While overall fire severity is down from the past few years, factors including a longstanding regional drought, the presence of increased tinder and dry grass, and the damage caused by bark beetles still push experts to predict a “normal” season, which could include over 5,500 fires burning 220,000 acres.

When enormous wildfires occur, soil in burned areas is much more readily eroded into our rivers, streams, and reservoirs. This impacts not only people but also the wildlife and ecosystems dependent on clean water. Wildfires also affect watersheds that are essential for irrigating crops—affecting the agriculture industry in Colorado.

Fire Trends and County Maps

Timeline Wildfire Trends

Lightning Fires Decreasing

Summer rains reduce immediate fire risks in Colorado, but they also help vegetation grow throughout the state. As these plants dry out in winter, they become potential fuel for wildfires. High winds in Colorado, especially during the winter, can fan fires sparked by an increased number of lightning strikes. The Rocky Mountains create strong wind currents that can blow at 60-100 miles per hour and have pushed wildfires to a dangerous size in minutes.

Human-Caused Fires Decreasing with Challenges

Nearly 80% of wildfires are started by humans. Colorado’s growing population is expanding into the wildland-urban interface, and rising temperatures increase the risk of wildfire damage in communities. Homes and businesses are being built on lands that historically had regular wildfires. Land managers and property owners must work together to adapt properties so that firefighters can safely protect structures while allowing fire to positively impact the local ecosystem.

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